WHEN compiling ten years of Boxing Day results the hope is that a quirk materializes, a trend that implies that this distinct day of the footballing calendar has a distinct trait to go with it.
Lots of goals. That would be a good one. Not only could that famous and bizarre set of results from 1963 be evoked but the word ‘bonanza’ could legitimately be deployed. Anytime that ‘bonanza’ features in a preview is a good day at the office.
Or what about a high volume of away wins? Granted, it would be a tenuous link but perhaps then a home crowd still stifled by too much turkey and bucks fizz – thereby diminishing their ability to intimidate – could be mentioned to explain it away.
In truth though, anything odd would have been welcomed. Anything beyond the norm.
Alas, there are no quirks. A decade of Boxing Day fixtures, amounting to 78 matches, have offered up 237 goals. That equates to three goals per game, a healthy number for sure, definitely on the high side, but nothing spectacular.
As for away wins, they add up to 33.3%, exactly a third. That may be above the average but calling it a ‘trait’ is an almighty stretch.
Only then, after a few more minutes of staring down a pageful of numbers, something does emerge, and it involves the last three seasons.
Because since 2021, Boxing Day fixtures have produced four goals per game. Now we’re talking. As for away victories, that shoots up dramatically from 33.3% to 55.5%.
The reason for this incontestable increase in away victories is easy to determine. Since the pandemic, with no fans in grounds, teams have lost some of the fear factor that used to kick in instinctively when on their travels. Subsequently we now see more visiting teams leaving with all three points.
55.5% though. That’s nigh-on remarkable.
So who, from the eight away sides this Thursday, should be backed to participate in a multi-goal thriller and depart victorious, continuing the recent traditions of this distinct day in the schedule?
Surely Tottenham have to be in the frame, for the first part at least, for all that Nottingham Forest have greatly impressed this term, and for all that they’ve been consistently solid defensively at the City Ground.
Spurs’ ridiculous 6-3 home loss to Liverpool on Sunday evening perfectly encapsulated who they presently are, and what they’ve become, a basket-case if we’re being particularly harsh. A team capable of inhabiting either extreme inside 90 minutes, if we’re being diplomatic.
At the back they are calamitous, a situation hardly helped by being deprived of their first choice keeper and centre-backs. But with a fabulous quartet of Son, Maddison, Kulusevski and Solanke they pose a multilayered and serious threat going forward.
In their last four outings across all comps Ange Postecoglou’s half-broken, half-riveting side have scored every 24 minutes. In that same period they have conceded every 27 minutes.
Talking of half-broken, it would be remiss not to include Manchester City in any conversation about teams in grave danger of losing at home.
Each and every week our empirical knowledge of Pep Guardiola’s men tells us that they’ll bite back soon and with real venom. Yet every matchday sees them meek, spent and brittle, a poor facsimile of the magisterial creation they once were.
They are Clark Kent in Superman II after surrendering his superpowers. A bar brawl sees him flattened and dumbfounded at the sight of his own blood.
Can Everton make it ten defeats in 13 across all comps for the crisis-hit champions? The Toffees have kept five clean sheets in six and though they are finding goals hard to come by that may be less of an issue against a midfield that is shockingly easy to bypass and a defence ravaged by injuries.
Let’s keep this one nice and simple because the odds are too generous to ignore given the compelling evidence of recent weeks.
If City are flailing, their former arch-nemesis Liverpool are flying, looking more convincing in their role as champions-elect with each passing performance.
Their draw at home to Fulham showed they have plenty of mettle to go with all the midfield control and forward foraging that has propelled them to the top under Arne Slot. Seventeen minutes in, they were a goal down and a man down.
On Sunday meanwhile at Spurs they were exemplary for the opening 40 or so minutes, vibrant, fluid and complete. For that prolonged spell we can add untouchable to the superlatives too.
Yes, they have started to creak somewhat at the rear, shipping in eight goals in three, after previously conceding 0.6 per 90 but what does that matter when they have Luis Diaz in such scintillating form and Mo Salah in other-worldly form? And here they encounter Leicester City, whose brief honeymoon period under Ruud Van Nistelrooy is already looking like a marriage of inconvenience.
The truth of the matter is that the Foxes have been close to abject all season long, over-performing on their xG in their good moments and overly reliant on a hefty amount of blocks and last-ditch clearances from Faes, Vestergaard and Okoli to mask how truly dire they are.
It’s merely a personal opinion but they are an infinitely worse team than Wolves or Ipswich who reside beneath them in the table.
The temptation therefore is to go for an Anfield trouncing but Liverpool’s propensity to dispense with opponents in two-goal bursts this season casts doubt on this. Instead, a more conservative approach is advised, especially with the Reds recently being leaky, despite all their brilliance.
Of the remaining games, West Ham’s trip to the south coast fascinates, with Southampton under new management while the Hammers continue to wring their hands over Julen Lopetegui.
The Saints’ negating of Fulham at Craven Cottage was an immediate leap forward under Ivan Juric even if their defensive set-up came at a cost. The visitors didn’t manage a meaningful attempt on goal until 56 minutes in.
Here, urged on by a Boxing Day crowd believing in new starts, such caution may be more difficult to adhere to.
As for the Hammers, for all their limitations, they have only failed to score once on the road all season. Intriguingly six of their last eight in the league have come after the break.
With goals fancied across the fixture due to two flawed back-lines featuring, expect the away team’s superior quality to ultimate tell.
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