SOME Premier League weekends feel fairly inconsequential.
Sure there will be a marquee match-up, usually scheduled for late afternoon on the Sunday, that has neutrals tuning in and taking sides. There will probably be a relegation scrap too.
By and large though, a typical match-week is littered with pairings that are destined to be shown last on Match of the Day should they finish goalless.
Only then, seemingly from nowhere and only very occasionally, the stars align and we get a special grouping of fixtures, a convergence of fascinating narratives and box-office clashes that has us counting down the days.
Be excited, strap yourselves in, because that’s exactly what we’ve got lined up before us.
We only need look to the lower reaches of the table for evidence of this as all of the bottom six play one another, a trio of games that could have a profound impact on who leaves us come May.
Elsewhere meanwhile, and inevitably grabbing most of the headlines, three of the Premier League’s elite ready themselves for a seismic day of reckoning, either approaching a crossroads to their season or – in Man United’ s case – embarking on a new path taken.
Let’s start with Arsenal, whose tricky trip to the North-East can legitimately be deemed a must-win.
A loss and a draw has left the Gunners five points adrift of Manchester City at the summit and given that Pep Guardiola’s men have averaged just 13 points dropped from November onwards across their four title triumphs we can surmise that the gap cannot widen.
Should Arsenal end up eight points in arrears on Saturday evening that leaves them with little-to-no margin for error for the rest of their campaign.
So, can they prevail at St James Park? Certainly their track record is decidedly mixed up there, undone twice since Newcastle’s transformative takeover.
In their favour is that the Magpies are winless in five and facing a crossroads of their own, as fans question Eddie Howe’s credentials for the first time proper.
What doesn’t help the host’s cause is an xG that far exceeds their goals scored, the second largest negative difference in the top-flight but at least in Alexander Isak they have a forward who has converted 11 in his last 11 outings at home. Now back up to speed after injury, the Swede poses a genuine threat to an Arsenal back-line that has conceded 2+ goals in four of their last five.
Staying with that, of course, one of the biggest considerations ahead of this defining fixture is Arsenal’s absences at the back. Gabriel is out. Califiori is out. Timber is 50/50. If Newcastle can rouse themselves out of their mini-slump and meet the occasion head-on they can get some joy against a rearguard that was nigh-on impenetrable in the opening weeks.
As for the outcome, and who gets to right October’s wrongs, it stands to reason that Declan Rice will need to be exceptional again, as he was against Liverpool, while Bukayo Saka has created more chances than any other Premier League player in 2024/25.
But from a betting perspective we simply can’t look beyond a remodeled defence that was starting to creak when at full strength. It may also be pertinent that eight of Arsenal’s ten goals conceded have come after the break.
Twenty-four hours later the other North London giant have their own date with destiny, Spurs presently circling a drain of their own making but not yet confirmed as a club in crisis.
This time last year, Tottenham were top and unbeaten, with everyone believing that Ange Postecoglou was the latest big deal, a man who could finally bring silverware to N17.
Only now they are a model of inconsistency, a side in search of themselves, and someone should inform Big Ange that it’s supposed to be the other way around. The first season is for discovery, the second for certainty.
Regardless, amidst such doubts, they really could do without hosting a team as buoyant and dangerous as Aston Villa this Sunday.
Unai Emery’s men have yet to be bettered on their travels and moreover they are in possession of a plethora of players in outstanding form.
Ollie Watkins has contributed a goal involvement every 80 minutes since the tail-end of August and when he has run his race along comes John Duran to extend on a remarkable season of super-subbing. The prolific Colombian has averaged 2.3 shots on target per 90.
Then there’s Youri Tielemans, revitalized and always impactful in the middle, racking up 2.1 key passes per game.
Last term, the Villans left the capital 2-1 to the good and what should concern the hosts is their guests are in even better shape now.
Not that Spurs are without reasons for optimism, even if they are deprived of Son Heung-min, a huge miss as their lack of a cutting edge at Selhurst park demonstrated.
James Maddison is conjuring up 2.5 chances per 90 and tends to reserve his best performances for home soil. Indeed, this applies too to Tottenham who have scored 11 in four in front of their own fans.
Just as persuasive is their shots on target count, the second highest in the league, which suggests they can turn things around and soon. The same goes for a corner count that is a considerable 35 – 3.8 per 90 – more than Villa’s.
With this clash being difficult to call, backing Spurs in this regard is the way to go.
Last but by no means least we come to the soap opera that is Manchester United, who this week killed off one of their main characters in the hope of boosting ratings.
It hasn’t worked for them before but this time, who knows?
There is little point now in revisiting the flaws and failings that were so prevalent under Erik Ten Hag, not with the prospect of a change of direction occurring under interim boss Ruud Van Nistelrooy, but what is striking is how few options the Dutchman has to alter the personnel.
Joshua Zirkzee could be deployed, gaining only his third start of the season. Elsewhere, Manuel Ugarte could be drafted into midfield.
These two options aside, such are United’s injury woes, Van Nistelrooy must persist with a broken side, surely spending this week in training attempting to fix the gaping gap ahead of their defence, the fundamental issue that ultimately cost Ten Hag so dear.
This is especially critical given that this is the area where Cole Palmer roams, the ice-cold schemer scoring and assisting 12 times in nine league games to date.
The Blues haven’t won at Old Trafford since 2012 but rightly go into this potentially blockbuster affair as slight favourites, looking the real deal under Enzo Maresca and averaging 2.7 goals per 90 on the road this term.
But to what extent should we factor in the emotion on the day; the desperate desire from everyone of a red persuasion to begin a new chapter strongly? Van Nistelrooy has eight predecessors – including interim bosses – since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement and five of them started their tenures with convincing victories.
That won’t happen here, but it absolutely makes BTTS a safe-ish bet.
As is backing Bruno Fernandes to be carded, a player who often goes over-the-top in trying to mirror the supporter’s fervour.
Seven of his last 10 cards have come at home.
The Sack Race!
It’s silly season. That time of the year when chairmen get twitchy and P45s abound!
After Erik ten Hag’s dismissal rumours are that big Ange is under enormous pressure at Tottenham! Could the Spurs man be next in the firing line?
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