IT’S hard to properly quantify a crisis or in Manchester United’s case to compare against every other crisis they have endured in the post-Ferguson era.
The response from the media and social media gives us strong clues, of course, and from this we can surmise that Erik Ten Hag’s position is now under serious threat, and certainly we can surmise that 1-0 wins over inferior fare won’t cut it anymore. We are long past the point of papering over the cracks, where slender victories over relegation strugglers, despite being the poorer team for the most part, are painted in a positive light.
Talking of which, results are by far the most reliable indicator as to which circle of hell a club has plummeted to. Going into tonight’s Champions League clash with Bayern, a consistently ill-balanced, and at times shambolic United have lost 47.8% of their fixtures across all comps. Remarkably, in 39% of their fixtures they have conceded three-plus goals.
Lastly, there is another metric that can be used, one that is perhaps unique to United in accurately measuring the depths in which they have fallen.
When things get really bad at Old Trafford, out come the leaks, as players seek to isolate the manager and protect themselves. We have already seen evidence of this.
All of which means that a fractured and fragile group of players must head down the M62, in the worst state of their careers, to a ground that has a nasty habit of exposing their weaknesses in the harshest manner, and to a club that enjoys doing so immensely.
Entrenched in crisis and without the ways and means to pull themselves out of it, Manchester United must now travel to Anfield.
Their woeful record at the home of their bitterest rival is best exemplified by United’s inability season after season to trouble Liverpool, last scoring there when Jose Mourinho was in charge and Theresa May was Prime Minister.
Indeed, if we go back further, a staggering stat emerges, that United have scored only once at Anfield in the last 12 hours of competitive action.
For balance, it should be pointed out that three of the last seven encounters on Merseyside have ended 0-0 but are the current, porous United defence capable of shutting out a ferocious Liverpool attack, one that is converting at a rate of a goal every 36 minutes all season long? That feels extremely doubtful, especially given that the visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet away from home to a top-nine side during Ten Hag’s time at the wheel.
There have been some comprehensive defeats in there too, including that shocking 7-0 deconstruction at Anfield last March.
At least United’s front-line can be entrusted to fulfil their end of the bargain if a goalless affair is aspired to. Combined, Marcus Rashford, Rasmus Hojlund, Antony, Anthony Martial and Alejandro Garnacho have played 3770 minutes of league football this term, scoring a meagre four goals between them. Three came in the same game. One was a penalty.
It comes as precisely no surprise therefore to learn that United have the second worst big chance conversion rate in the top-flight.
And so to Liverpool, a team that is back to its best and challenging for the title even if oddly some observers are still playing a wait-and-see game.
Last weekend at Selhurst Park, Jurgen Klopp’s men displayed one of the key attributes of any elite side by stuttering and spluttering for an hour, going behind, then finding a way to emerge victorious. It was a win that extends on a fine run of results this season that has seen them lose only once in the league, and that to a couple of contentious VAR-calls in North London.
In 23 games, across all competitions, the Reds have yet to fire a blank.
#200 pic.twitter.com/JzmTsnls6W
— Mohamed Salah (@MoSalah) December 11, 2023
Naturally enough, Mo Salah can take a lot of the credit for this consistent prolificacy, notching 11 in 16 in the league alone and the explosive winger clearly relishes coming up against United, accruing 16 goal involvements from 12 previous meetings.
Intriguingly, he has been booked five times in these games. Against no other club has he been cautioned more than twice.
Over 1.5 shots on target for Salah and for the forward to be booked is worth a punt at 21/2
Trent Alexander-Arnold meanwhile is having a vintage campaign, averaging 2.4 key passes per 90 and 2.7 chances. Look out too for Cody Gakpo who is pushing hard for a starting spot at Old Trafford and very possibly deserves one. The Dutchman has scored three and assisted once in his last five full outings.
Elsewhere, a detail that is noteworthy is Liverpool’s distribution of goals, with only one apiece from a defender and midfielder until a month or two back. In recent weeks, Van Dijk has struck from a set-piece while Endo, Mac Allister and Elliott have all found the target.
Again, sharing goals around is the mark of an elite collective, one that is arguably getting better all the time after a summer overhaul. One that is destined to compound an arch-rival’s misery this Sunday.