MANCHESTER City have participated in seven of the last 12 Community Shields, losing on four occasions. Arsenal have played in four since 2014, winning each one.

This of course tells us very little about what awaits us at Wembley on Sunday afternoon. Different circumstances. Different teams. But focusing just on the last two years does reveal something potentially pertinent, in fact very probably pertinent.

Against Leicester in 2021 and against Liverpool last summer, City lost 1-0 and 3-1 respectively and both times were lacking, off the pace and somewhat disjointed. It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that in each encounter they conceded late costly goals, as their inferior fitness eventually told.

Take an educated punt on Arsenal winning the second half at 7/2

It has become a purposeful plan of action under Pep Guardiola for the Blues to ease their way into campaigns, a stratagem designed to have his team play at full tilt at the business end and knowing this, a useful approach is to back against City in fixtures such as this but absolutely do not even consider doing so beyond February.

The evidence supporting this theory is there for all to see.

In 2020/21, City won only three of their opening eight league games, a faltering start that included a heavy 5-2 defeat at the Etihad at the hands of Leicester. They went on to win the league title by 12 clear points.

A season later, a meek opening day loss at Spurs exacerbated a poor showing at the Community Shield. It ultimately needed an imperious unbeaten run from Spring onwards to retain their title.

Last year, after succumbing to a leaner, meaner Liverpool in English football’s ‘curtain raiser’, City’s results were admittedly pretty decent from the off. Yet across the first couple of months there were definite gremlins in the machine, their fluency in short supply and their swagger supplanted by a degree of fallibility.

Teams were still being brushed aside due to City’s outstanding quality but it was clear nonetheless that Guardiola’s creation was not yet fully operational. When they were, later in the season, nobody could touch them.

Intriguingly 11 of the last 14 Community Shields have seen goals scored in both halves. Back that trend to continue on Sunday at 4/7

All of which puts a different slant on this game. Because we think of City’s three victories over the Gunners last term, the first of which in the league saw Kevin De Bruyne’s resplendent while Erling Haaland had one of his best all-round outings in a blue shirt.

The second of which had Arsenal jump out of the throne they were trying out for size, apologizing for having the temerity to sit in it.

We recall these largely one-sided contests and consider too, City’s remarkable historic end to 2022/23, and we view them as strong favourites. The superior side.

Football though, like cooking steaks and dating, is all about timing.

This is especially relevant given how Arsenal flew out of the blocks last year, enjoying a near-perfect pre-season before demonstrating perfectly who they can be under Mikel Arteta.

Gaining maximum points from their first five fixtures, they maintained momentum even after a loss at Old Trafford, going on to build up a healthy lead at the summit and this was all achieved via stylish, assertive fare it was impossible not to admire. From the get-go they were a whirlwind.

The Gunners to win by an exact margin of one is a decent shout at 23/4

And again, this season it feels like a positive, productive start to a campaign is imminent, their tour of the US including a 5-3 triumph over Barcelona that required them twice to overturn a deficit, followed by a routine dismissal of a team made up of MLS All-Stars.

Furthermore, the club is in a good place at present, hell-bent on atoning for their late collapse last term and buoyed by the signings of three players who strengthen them considerably in Jurrien Timber, Declan Rice and Kai Havertz. It bodes extremely well that the latter scored twice in America, settling into his new surroundings and new role immediately.

Concerning those friendlies, Bukayo Saka stood out, perhaps unsurprisingly, but it’s the form of Leandro Trussard that is most worthy of note, the scorer of three goals on tour and a player whose impact on joining from Brighton midway through last season went somewhat unheralded.

Between late-February and late-May, the Belgian assisted every 78 minutes, a stat made all-the-more impressive with so many of those minutes coming from cameo appearances. Don’t rule out Trussard having a stand-out campaign this year, starting this weekend.

As for City, their pre-season has mainly consisted of rediscovering their rhythm and doing so in a leisurely manner, though it does concern that they’ve conceded six in three and at times have looked uncharacteristically disorganized at the back.

A bet builder backing over 2.5 goals and BTTS offers up 59/50

Elsewhere, some of their kids have staked a claim for Premier League game-time, most notably Oscar Bobb and it is hoped that the 20-year-old features at Wembley, his clever touches and enterprise an unfailing delight.

Really though, what matters most beyond the performances of individuals is that Arsenal have played one more friendly to City, and moreover have given their big players greater minutes, and this takes us back to the beginning, to the possibility of City having a poor beginning.

Back the Gunners to prevail this weekend as they’ll likely be keener and sharper and busier all-told. Further down the line it will be a different matter altogether.