Ste Tudor: Women’s World Cup betting tips: What have we learned so far?

WE are six days in to the 2023 Women’s World Cup and at this juncture every team have played at least 90 minutes.

What then do these opening round of fixtures tell us? More pertinently, what do they tell us that differ from the pre-tournament tips and predictions that were all across the media as Australia and New Zealand loomed large?

Regrettably, the first disparity concerns the Lionesses, a team talked up going into the competition and strongly backed in the betting accordingly.

Sarina Wiegman’s tactical flexibility was heralded, as too a defence that had conceded only 12 goals in 32 games under the Dutch coach. Up front, Rachel Daly was touted as a Golden Boot contender after banging in 20 goals for Aston Villa last term, while on the flanks outstanding campaigns from Lauren Hemp and Chloe Kelly boded very well.

England were second favourites for a great many reasons, not least because last summer’s Euro success imbued them with confidence and tournament know-how.

Amidst all of this high expectation, their recent struggles to find the back of the net was mentioned in dispatches, with England firing blanks against Australia, Portugal and Canada, the latter in a behind-closed-doors friendly. Yet it was only in passing. A curio.

Now though, now it’s become a thing. A concern.

Because against an eminently beatable side in Haiti, the Lionesses’ wastefulness was again on show, racking up 21 attempts on goal – 11 on target – all to little avail. Industrious and creative throughout, Chloe Kelly accrued the second most progressive passes (20) of any player across the opening games. Alessia Russo had six attempts all to herself. Yet ultimately it needed a retaken spot-kick to settle matters.

It means that Wiegman’s side have only a penalty to their name from their last 457 minutes of international football. They haven’t scored from open play since April.

Slotted by @StanwayGeorgia at the second time of asking 🤩

Our #Lionesses' first goal of the #FIFAWWC pic.twitter.com/R85EZFR0Ll

— Lionesses (@Lionesses) July 22, 2023

It’s a legitimate worry as Denmark await, in a game that may conceivably determine who gets to avoid playing Australia in Sydney in the last 16.

For the Red and White, Pernille Harder is an obvious danger, a world class talent who ended last season for Chelsea in sublime form with eight goal involvements in May.

It should also be noted that the Danes tend to grow into contests, scoring six of their last 10 beyond the 75^th minute.

As for England, don’t discount Daly being drafted in after so many chances went begging. Let’s hope her clinical finishing at club level proves to be the difference.

Elsewhere, high shot counts but fewer goals than anticipated were common-place which at least is a tiny consolation for England in not being alone in that regard.

In the opening round of the 2015 World Cup, we saw an average of 3.3 goals per game, a number that slightly decreased four years later to 3.1. This time out it was 2.1 as the minnows applied themselves much better and ensured they were hard to thrash.

This was very much in evidence when the USWNT fired three past Vietnam, a healthy return for sure but Alex Morgan and co were expected to run riot against severely inferior opposition. Instead, relentless waves of attacks were largely rebuffed.

Where events did directly tally with our tournament preview however was in our tipping of Sophia Smith to bag a brace, the Portland Thorns ace additionally backed to finish the competition with the most goals and assists.

With two on the board, plus an assist for good measure, the 22-year-old is well on her way to becoming the stand-out player of the summer.

Another forecast we’ve got right was in tipping Spain to gel after all their troubles last year and subsequently coasting through their group stage. Furthermore, we allocated a whole glowing paragraph to Aitana Bonmati, the midfielder going on to be magnificent and instrumental against Costa Rica and thoroughly decent vs Zambia too.

Indeed, so impressive have La Roja been, it’s tempting to revisit our original thoughts on them exiting at the semi-final stage. They could go all the way.

But you don’t want to hear us blow our own trumpets. What you want is to discover what we got so very wrong, which leads us crashing into our suggestion that Zambia could surprise a few people, a conjecture based on them beating Germany recently and possessing Kundananji and Banda up front.

Though it was highlighted how incredibly porous their defence was it was felt that the Copper Queens could pull off a shock or two. Instead, they’ve pulled off a shocker or two, losing 5-0 on the bounce.

Another team we estimated badly was Brazil, though not to any extreme degree. They simply weren’t fancied to especially excel.

A serious reconsideration is now required after Selecao so wonderfully deconstructed Panama, an exhibition of Samba brilliance epitomized by their exciting young winger Ayy Borges grabbing a hat-trick while also laying on a dreamy assist.

The scorer of that fourth goal incidentally is definitely worth noting, Zaneratto Joao taking on seven shots in just an hour of action.

France will of course be a tougher test on Saturday, but with Brazil’s recent habit of blitzing the opposition before the half-time break, then enjoying themselves for the duration – something they’ve done in their last three outings – they have every chance of prevailing, topping Group F in the process.

Lastly, Sweden’s last-minute squeak past South Africa may not at first glance have revealed a whole lot but by conceding to the Banyana Banyana, it means a side stereotyped as functional and solid have failed to keep a clean sheet now in six of their last seven fixtures.

Though they should have the beating of Italy at the weekend it should not be overlooked either that Le Azzurre have scored in all-but-one of their previous seven.

It will be a lot closer contest than their respective statures suggest.