AT stake for Manchester City in Istanbul this Saturday are pinnacles too momentous to be determined by a mere football match.

A historic treble is on the line, one that would forever define a side that has dominated the English landscape for several seasons now. Doubts would be slain to their greatness with sceptics put in their place.

This is their Battle of Bosworth Field, their coronation, their Knebworth, and it feels frankly a bit ridiculous that it can all be undone by a close-range deflection off Romelu Lukaku’s generous posterior.

If that suggests that Inter Milan can only prevail via scrappy good fortune it is an unintended and unwarranted downplaying of what they can – and likely will – bring to the party this weekend.

This is a side that have kept clean sheets in 42.8% of their fixtures this term while scoring every 50 minutes across 2022/23.

Like their opponents they are formidable front-runners, failing to win only six times from the 38 occasions they have gone in front, and in midfield they are blessed to have a world class talent in Nicolo Barella – arguably their most important player – and Hakan Calhanoglu who boasts world class stats. Defenders aside, no player in the Inter set-up has been dispossessed less often than the Turkish playmaker this season while his 2.1 key passes per 90 demonstrates his impact in the final third.

Calhanoglu assisted in Inter’s semi-final against Milan and is 7/1 in the player specials market to do so again

Moreover, though City have never previously met I Nerazzurri in a competitive fixture, they have encountered their ilk before and struggled, Inter being, in shape and directive, so very reminiscent of Spurs under Antonio Conte, only much better functioning.

The Blues have twice been made to look very ordinary by the Italian’s 3-5-2 with ground-covering wing-backs in recent years.

Lastly, and crucially, Inter possess strikers who thrive on such marquee occasions. Lautaro Martinez has fired 29.6% of his team’s league goals and no player has scored more match-winners in Serie A this season. Romelu Lukaku has notched seven in his last seven starts.

Then there’s Edin Dzeko, the former City player who could destroy their destiny. Narratives like that tend to play out a lot in big finals.

Yet, trumping that instinct, this feels like City’s time, a profound realization of all the wonderful football they have exhibited in the modern era, an overdue anointing of Pep Guardiola’s creation as the best team on the continent.

Inter have kept clean sheets in 42.8% of their fixtures. City’s percentage is 43.3.

Inter have scored every 50 minutes. City have scored every 36 minutes, including putting six past Manchester United, and four past Liverpool and Real Madrid.

Martinez has bagged 28 goals across all comps and is rightly seen as a serious threat. Erling Haaland has smashed 52, more than half of Inter’s total tally this term.

The phenomenally prolific Norwegian is 8/11 to score anytime

Wherever you look, it’s the recently re-crowned English champions who have the superior numbers and even the Italian’s much-vaulted defence shows deficiencies at closer inspection, even if it usually takes some time to break it down. Nine of their last 15 goals conceded have come beyond the 75^th minute.

There are admittedly other factors to consider, over and above the data, namely an acknowledgement of how much winning this competition has long meant to City, and how psychologically damaging it has previously been eluding them in an often cruel fashion.

But anyone who witnessed Guardiola crying at Wembley, or heard the players defiantly shout out ‘one more’, will know that the tail-end of this season has become a cause, with momentum now at full-pelt. It’s hard therefore to see them choking in Istanbul. Indeed, this could be the most Manchester City we’ve seen Manchester City for several weeks.

The fixture too of course will have a role to play, the last four being won to nil, the last three to a 1-0 scoreline.

Under 2.5 goals in normal time is worth a shout at 57/50

When revisiting prior finals what most stands out is the high amount of goals scored late in contests, with 14 of the last 20 converted in the second period. That adds slightly more significance to Inter’s habit of conceding at the death.

There has also been a relatively high card-count in recent times, though this feels much less relevant to the teams on display. Both City and Inter came second in the fair play tables in their respective leagues.

The last time a Champions League final went into extra-time was in 2016. That just feels like we’re due one.

Which may well conceivably be the case this weekend, with Inter expected to be all of the cliches. They will be resilient and well-organised. A threat going forward.

City though have destiny in their corner, or at least that’s how it feels.

A bet builder backing under 4.5 total cards, under 8.5 total shots on target and under 5.5 corners in the first half offers up 3/1