THIS Saturday afternoon Manchester City and Manchester United compete in a domestic cup final for the first time in their long, proud histories and the pessimism that is rife among both fan-bases is interesting to note.
United fans, across social media, appear to be tentatively hopeful, but mainly fear a thumping, and this is understandable given what transpired at the Etihad back in October.
Then, the Blues racked up a 4-0 lead at half-time and were winning 6-1 going into the latter stages, courtesy of Erling Haaland and Phil Foden hat-tricks. Only when City took their foot off the pedal, and their eyes off the prize of humiliation, did United manage to grab a couple of late consolations.
Since losing to Spurs in early February, Pep Guardiola’s recently crowned league champions have averaged 2.7 goals-per-90 and all season long, across all comps, have scored 3+ goals on 31 occasions. That’s 53.4% of their fixtures.
As for City supporters, their fatalism may be more surprising but only on the surface. Scratch a little deeper and memories of January’s derby at Old Trafford soon emerge, a 2-1 loss that still rankles due to the controversial nature of Bruno Fernandes’ equaliser.
The Reds had just 29% possession that afternoon yet posted four times more shots on target and this ability to frustrate and prevail goes back a good way in this fixture, encompassing five different managers. In the last eight years, United have won nine, lost nine, and drawn three of their neighbourly dust-ups.
‘Wouldn’t it be just typical,’ City fans are saying, not all of course, though all are aware of United’s decent record in derbies, ‘if it’s that lot who deny us a treble’.
That Erik Ten Hag’s men can stop their rivals replicating that famous treble in 1999 is naturally a fascinating sub-plot to this game but in truth, the United contingent have loftier, more self-interested aims.
A win this weekend will complete a season that has already seen the Reds finish third and lift the League Cup, and with all of the problematic players moved on, and with Leandro Martinez and Casemiro immeasurably improving their defence and midfield respectively, what an opening statement by the Dutchman a second trophy would make. Yes, sometimes the media get carried away and resort to hyperbole but it’s still fair to call that a new era, and an exciting one to boot.
It’s a new era that has them well on their way to reclaiming the ‘fear factor’ at Old Trafford – unbeaten at home in the league all season, bar an opening day loss to Brighton – while the defensive components of Ten Hag’s construction is improving all the time. Since being decimated at Anfield back in early March, United’s back-line have conceded just eight in 13 league games, and that’s while being deprived of Martinez and Raphael Varane for the most part.
Martinez misses out at the weekend, but Varane is available.
Up front, meanwhile, Marcus Rashford’s importance should not be downplayed, the 25-year-old scoring 29.3% of his team’s goal-haul, 10 of which have been match-winners.
For all that Haaland inevitably gets the lion’s share of the plaudits for his astonishing and prolific feats, Rashford is the first United player to notch 30 in a season for a full decade. He has six direct goal involvements in 17 previous derbies.
Only TEN players have scored more goals in all competitions in a single season for Manchester United than Marcus Rashford managed (30) this season:
D. Law
R. van Nistelrooy
W. Rooney
C. Ronaldo
T. Taylor
B. Whelan
G. Best
D. Herd
D. Violett
B. McClairHistoric season.🫡🫡🫡 pic.twitter.com/znmZWHqSlO
— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) May 31, 2023
All of this however, pales to the more pertinent detail that United are presently in the better form of the two, heading to Wembley on the back of four straight wins. Indeed, their proactivity in recent weeks has been remarkable, averaging 21 shots and seven shots on target from their last five outings. That compares very favourably to City’s 14.4 shots and 3.8 shots on target across the same period.
Some context is required here of course, with City having sewn up the title with three games to spare and subsequently mixing and matching their line-ups to ensure all of their go-to stars are in prime condition ahead of two huge finals.
If United are in the better form, City are in the better shape.
Which means that Haaland travels ravenous for goals and action, having brooded on the bench twice-over in recent weeks, while Jack Grealish’s significance to this City creation is apparent by how he’s been taken out of the firing line.
It is Haaland though who unsurprisingly most grabs the attention, and for the second-to-last time this season it’s worth highlighting the Norwegian’s staggering stats.
Most goals+assists in all competitions in Europe's top five leagues 2022/23 📈👏
6⃣1⃣ Erling Haaland
4⃣9⃣ Kylian Mbappe
4⃣5⃣ Mohamed Salah
4⃣4⃣ Vinicius Jr.
4⃣0⃣ Lionel Messi
4⃣0⃣ Marcus Rashford pic.twitter.com/cbOZrdCeKG— Stats24 (@_Stats24) May 25, 2023
He has scored 1.17 goals per 90 in the league, or put another way, a goal every 77 minutes. He has scored just shy of half of United’s total in 2022/23, despite playing 26 fewer hours of football. And let’s not forget that hat-trick last autumn.
Add Kevin De Bruyne into the reckoning too – a game-changer who has often come to the fore in this fixture – and it is City who should be backed on Saturday, though United have been purposely talked up above to demonstrate that any suggestions put forward by neutrals that it will be comfortable are wide of the mark.
United will play their part. They will have their moments. They will likely score, going against a trend in FA Cup Finals that has seen 21 of the last 30 won to nil.
Of more relevance to this particular clash, that will have plenty of emotion, and thereby nerves, intimating it could be cagey in the opening exchanges, 17 of the last 25 goals scored in previous finals in normal time were converted in the second period.
