SEAN Dyche has set up teams to face Arsenal on 15 previous occasions. He has won only the once.

This stark stat will likely get very little traction ahead of the Toffees’ hosting of Arsenal on Saturday lunchtime, largely because it doesn’t fit with a narrative that has already taken flight, less than 24 hours after the manager’s appointment at Goodison Park.

The narrative has it that the no-nonsense, sergeant-major-type figure will thunder into Finch Farm and restore order into a failing side. He will reignite some fight and have them playing for their lives, all while organising two disciplined banks of four into impenetrable muster.

By the time he’s finished barking out instructions, Dyche will be in need of a multipack of Strepsils.

As for their opponents, what looked to be a straightforward three points to further strengthen a title charge has now become one of the toughest tests of their season to date.

All of which may hold true but very probably will not. Because not withstanding the fact that it’s impossible to transform a dilapidated Everton team into peak Burnley across just five training sessions – Dyche is a very good coach but not a miracle worker – it’s also pertinent that peak Burnley used to lose to the Gunners all the time. And back then the Gunners paled significantly to their present incarnation.

If this sounds overly negative, it is only in response to an exaggeration of a new manager’s healing powers, one that we often see promoted in football in the guise of a ‘bounce’. In this instance too, it’s one that woefully under-estimates just how good Arsenal are right now, and how poor Everton have been.

Somewhat surprisingly Martin Odegaard has taken on the second highest number of shots this term for the Gunners. The Norwegian is 7/10 to have over 1.5 at Goodison

Damned as a ‘soft touch’ by former player Michael Ball this week, the Toffees have conceded every 32 minutes in 2023 and it is now nine games since they kept a clean sheet. At the other end, across a miserable campaign, they have created a meagre 21 big chances, equating to just shy of one per game.

Still, it is perfectly reasonable to expect some degree of improvement this weekend, with players desperate to impress. That hardly feels like a stretch.

We can also anticipate better shape and fortitude even from just a handful of hours of tutelage in training, while the fans will no doubt be bang up for this one, bolstered by the symbolism of a fresh start.

In this regard it’s a shame when the game is taking place because typically atmospheres for early Saturday kick-offs struggle to reach fever pitch.

A bet builder backing Arsenal to win, under 2.5 total goals, and Everton to commit over 11.5 fouls is a shout at 21/4

Additionally, the decibel levels may take a while to rise because a strong opening from the hosts feels exceedingly unlikely, and not just because Dyche will surely prioritise in making his new outfit difficult to break down, to at least give them a foothold in proceedings.

Remarkably, Arsenal have yet to be breached inside 15 minutes in a Premier League fixture this term while Everton have scored a scant six in the first-half of games.

Staying with the early passages of play, at the back it’s a very different story for a team who persistently give themselves a mountain to climb. In their last eight games across all comps, Everton have gone behind inside 25 minutes seven times.

This unfortunate habit hardly bodes well against a side who are tremendous front-runners, gaining a lead on 17 occasions in the league and only subsequently dropping two points.

A correct score-line of 1-0 to the Arsenal at the break is available at 23/10

Now, it could be argued that detailing the differences between these teams misses the point, given that it is precisely this chasm that has resulted in Dyche taking the reins and thus offering up the prospect of a ‘new manager bounce’. Fair cop.

But to repeat, in order to hammer home the premise, though a ‘new manager bounce’ can take affect from time to time, it rarely has any substantial impact when it involves two sides so poles apart. Indeed, the best Everton can hope for on Saturday is to reduce that chasm between them to a gap.

Take their respective goal-threats as further evidence of this.

Post-Qatar, Demarai Gray has picked up the slack, scoring two in four, but the winger aside it’s been depressingly slim pickings for the goal-shy Toffees. Gray is their leading scorer on three.

Whereas, by sharp comparison, Eddie Nketiah has bagged nine in his last 12 league starts. Four from Gabriel Martinelli’s seven have been match-winners. Bukayo Saka – undoubtedly the best performing player in the best performing top-flight team this year – has 14 direct goal involvements in 19.

Add in 2.3 key passes per 90 for the 21-year-old and the outstanding form of Granit Xhaka who is a player reborn, and the narrative surrounding Sean Dyche’s arrival becomes something of a sub-plot, for ninety minutes at least.

Back Martinelli to score anytime at 12/5