LAST weekend, Pep Guardiola insisted that Kevin De Bruyne still had another level he could reach while sections of the media have suggested of late that Manchester City are in cruise control this season, at 75% at most.
Though reluctant to contradict the demanding Catalan – or for that matter the esteemed fourth estate – it should be pointed out that the brilliant Belgian has been directly involved in a goal every 78 minutes this term. City, meanwhile, have scored an average of 3.3 goals per game across all competitions. In the league, at the Etihad, the lowest tally they’ve managed in six outings has been a meagre three.
If improvements are still to come from player and club, that is a scary proposition for the top-flight.
A few weeks ago, that would have been an extremely scary thought for Leicester, struggling as they were at the bottom of the league, a shadow of a shadow of their former selves.
Seven games in, Brendan Rodger’s sorry Foxes were winless, having been breached more times in the second-half of contests than 16 of their Premier League peers had in total. Goalkeeper Danny Ward was getting pelters on social media for an inability to stop even routine efforts on his goal. Their defence was a shambles. On five occasions, Leicester went ahead in games only to draw or lose. Time and again they turned to James Maddison for inspiration but ultimately it was to no avail.
Last season’s eighth place finishers looked doomed to drop.
Brendan Rodgers has been speaking to BBC Radio Leicester after City moved out of the bottom three with a convincing 4-0 win away at Wolves…
🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/NMT7GrMW9N— BBC Sport Leicester (@BBCRLSport) October 23, 2022
Only then, a recovery. Leicester have kept four clean sheets in their last five, with the form of Wout Faes and the reinstatement of Daniel Amartey at centre-back central to that. At Molineux on Sunday, as Rodgers’ revived side helped themselves to four, Ward received the MOTM award after stopping six efforts – routine and otherwise – on his goal. Even Jamie Vardy has joined the party, a player who until now looked for all the world like an admittedly decent Jamie Vardy tribute act. In bagging his overdue opener for the campaign against Wolves he became the first Premier League player to score a century of goals after turning thirty.
If all of this is immensely encouraging from a Foxes perspective – and of course it is – it also comes with a side order of caution. Because if City are decimating all before them, save for their arch foes Liverpool, at three-quarter capacity, then Leicester are definitely giving it 100% at present, a maximum return that usually suggests unsustainable overachievement from a previously struggling side.
This is borne out in the stats. Leicester’s last six goals have come via five shots on target.
Such fortune and perfection cannot continue which inevitably leads to speculation about how the Foxes will fare when attempts begin to go awry and Ward stops inhabiting such extremes. It can however last for another 90 minutes. Buoyed by belief and relief, that is perfectly possible.
This is a fixture that conjures up lots of goals but studying the head-to-heads brings up a quirk that is difficult to explain in that almost exclusively the crazy score-lines have occurred at the Etihad.
In recent seasons, we’ve delighted in ridiculous games that finished 6-3, 5-2, and 5-1 in East Manchester but at the King Power it’s typically been far more sedate with just nine goals produced from the last five encounters. Seven of these have come courtesy of the Blues, from four victories that all came with clean sheets.
Under 2.5 goals for the visitors is well worth considering at 5/6.
Three of these goals from fixtures past have come from the slippered boot of Riyad Mahrez who has quietly rediscovered some form in recent weeks but utmost this is a meeting that places Vardy centre-stage, the veteran hit-man notching nine in 18 against City. For several seasons it became the norm for the 35-year-old to relish playing off the last man, taking advantage of any slip-ups from a high back-line, that was until lessons were finally learned and Guardiola adapted his set-up to lessen his threat. Which, incidentally, is one heck of a compliment.
Making his impact 🔥 💯 pic.twitter.com/1tDQqsfEmd
— Leicester City (@LCFC) October 25, 2022
Currently though, it is the eternally under-rated Harvey Barnes who is Leicester’s biggest menace, scoring three in five and it’s pertinent that the winger does tend to be streaky in front of goal. James Maddison meanwhile has contributed plenty to his team’s feat of scoring more goals from outside the box than anyone else.
For City, how can we overlook Erling Haaland? No, seriously, how can anyone overlook a 6ft 5 abundance of nature who looks like he’s visiting from Valhalla? The carnivorous Norwegian has snared 47.2% of City’s goals this term and if you want further stats on his remarkable prolificacy then firstly, how was that rock you’ve been living under?
Kevin De Bruyne now has 11 Goals + Assists in the Premier League this season. Only Erling Haaland (20) has more.
This is getting out of hand. 💥 pic.twitter.com/TBO7Yq5ZLU
— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) October 22, 2022
Suffice to say, a Guardian journalist has this week committed 800 words detailing how bored he is with Haaland scoring. That’s where we presently are with arguably the most phenomenal phenomenon we’ve witnessed in English football for quite some time.
A last point, because this will surely be mentioned often in the build-up to this Saturday’s clash.
One of the primary reasons for Leicester’s turn-around is that Rodgers has doubled down on their counter-attacking, a strategy that has undone City in this fixture before now.
But only Manchester United have scored more than City from counters this season and with Guardiola wary of Vardy coming back to haunt him, it is unlikely the Blues will go gung-ho right from the off. A cagey opening therefore can be anticipated, for the first twenty at least.
Beyond that all hell – or Valhalla – could be let loose.