We’re back in China for the start of the Asian swing and while the Zhuhai Championships is a brand-new event the three years of the Chengdu Open have been fruitful ones for underdog backers.
A hefty 51% of the main draw matches in Chengdu have gone the way of the betting underdog so far, which makes it the top-ranked tournament of the year in that regard.
It’s usually on the quicker side in Chengdu as well (83% service holds and 0.763 aces per game in the qualies this year) and 44% of its matches have featured at least one tie break, which makes it equal first on the list of tour level events on outdoor hard courts in that respect.
Only the majors of New York and Melbourne have a higher frequency of tie break matches on outdoor hard courts and they’re played over a longer distance, of course.
It’s the traditional slow start to an ATP 250 week on Monday, with only three matches on the card in Chengdu and four in Zhuhai and it’s the latter tournament that I’ll focus on for my bets on day one.
Peter Gojowczyk vs Cameron Norrie
Two very inconsistent and (currently) out of form players clashing on day one in Zhuhai at around 06:30 UK time and I’m happy to take the price on the German here.
It’s an interesting clash of styles, with the flashy, flat-hitting, right-handed Gojowczyk taking on the more solid, lefty game of Norrie and assuming that there’s some pace in these Zhuhai courts Gojowczyk has every chance here.
Gojowczyk’s flat ball is tough for most to deal with on a quickish court if he gets it right and I prefer his game to Norrie’s more patient style on a pacy hard court, but it does depend on Gojowczyk getting his high risk game right on the day.
When this pair met on clay earlier on this season on the red dirt, which is surely Gojowczyk’s worst surface and one of Norrie’s best, there wasn’t much in it at all, with the German creating a whopping 19 break chances but taking only three of them.
In the end Norrie edged it by eight points and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this were a bit of a scrap as well, with both men struggling for form at the moment.
The wildly inconsistent Gojowczyk has lost his last five in a row since beating Rublev, De Minaur, Raonic and Edmund to make the Washington semi finals in quickish conditions and that shows how good his top level is when he gets it right.
Norrie has struggled for much of the season and has lost five of his last six, so two very much out of form players are clashing here, but in these conditions the price on Gojowczyk is tempting.
Norrie has lost five of his last seven main level matches when priced up between 1.50 and 1.69, while Gojowczyk has proven a good player to have on your side as underdog on outdoor hard, winning seven of his 10 career matches at main level as a 2.30 to 2.60 underdog and nine of his last 13 on all surfaces in that price range.
It wouldn’t be a massive shock by any means if Adrian Mannarino were to lose or be tested by Ze Zhang, who memorably beat Richard Gasquet in China back in 2012 as a big underdog.
Indeed, Zhang almost took down Daniil Medvedev as a 5.77 chance around a year ago and so he does have the level in him on occasion and it’s usually at home in China that he shows it.
Mannarino was poor again last week in St. Petersburg when he won just four games against Egor Gerasimov and he’s lost his last five matches in China since a three-set win over Albert Ramos back in 2016.
He hasn’t won a main draw match in China in straight sets since beating another Chinese player (Yan Bai) 7-5, 7-6 in 2015 and I’m tempted by either the first set to Zhang at around 2.75 or the 2-1 to Mannarino at around 4.0.
Mannarino doesn’t often lose at this sort of price, with a 20-2 overall win/loss record at main level (10-0 on outdoor hard) when priced up between 1.30 and 1.50, but Zhang may well have a set in him, so I’ll have a small interest on 2-1 to the Frenchman.
Di Wu made the final of the Shanghai Challenger a week ago, beating some decent opposition in the process and he’s beaten Tatsuma Ito in the past, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he were to get the better of Ito on Monday.
Hopefully, one of our outrights, Yoshihito Nishioka will be too good on a lively hard court for Albert Ramos, who’s coming off the clay, to cope with in the other match on day one in Zhuhai.
Over in Chengdu, the Brits Dan Evans and Kyle Edmund look to have winnable round one matches, but one can never really be sure of the level coming off Edmund’s racquet from one match to the next at the moment.
Cristian Garin will probably find conditions too quick for him, but Edmund will still need to play well to get the win and we saw in New York (again) that Edmund is no cert against clay courters on hard.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Gojowczyk to beat Norrie at 2.40
0.5 points win Mannarino to beat Zhang 2-1 at 4.0
